Election Day could be a watershed moment for marijuana.
Marijuana legalization will appear on the ballot in five states: California, Nevada, Arizona, Maine, and Massachusetts. And, another four states — Montana, North Dakota, Florida, and Arkansas — will be voting on medical marijuana.
If all five votes pass, that means that nearly a quarter of all Americans will live in states where weed is legal. It may well be a tipping point for the federal government’s stance on the issue.
California — Very Likely
Californians will be voting on Proposition 64, possibly the most pivotal of all the marijuana initiatives on the ballot.
If California passes recreational marijuana, the world’s sixth largest economy — in terms of GDP — will have a legal marijuana industry.
Prop 64 would allow all Californians over the age of 21 to use and posses marijuana legally. The measure would also create two taxes, one for cultivation, and one for retail. Businesses would need a state license to sell marijuana.
The ballot has been endorsed by a wide range of people, including Peter Thiel, a prominent Trump backer, and Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House minority leader and the representative for California’s 12th district.
Polling indicates that a majority of Californians support Prop 64. A recent USC Dorsnife/LA Times estimated 58% support on the ‘yes’ side.
Maine — Likely
Mainers will vote on Question 1 on Election Day. If passed, Question 1 would legalize, regulate, and tax marijuana as an agricultural product. The ballot measure would also set up a licensing system for retail marijuana stores, and marijuana social clubs.
Though Maine’s Republican governor, Paul LePage, doesn’t support the initiative, a poll conducted in March showed that 54% of Mainers support legalizing weed.
Massachusetts — Likely
Massachusetts residents will vote on Question 4 on Election Day. While medical marijuana is already legal in Massachusetts, this ballot would create a commission to regulate marijuana for retail sale for those over 21 in the state.
The state would also levy new taxes on retail marijuana. If Massachusetts residents vote yes — marijuana legalization would take effect as soon as December 15, 2016.
Though a number of politicians across the aisle have voiced their concerns, the latest polls show a whopping 64% support for legalization.
Nevada — Tossup
Nevada will vote on Question 2 on Election Day. The initiative will legalize the possession and consumption of up to an ounce of marijuana for adults over the age of 21.
As well, if the vote passes, Nevada will create a licensing system for retail stores and marijuana clubs in the state.
Polling indicates that the issue is a tossup. A polling average indicates that support for the ballot is hovering around 51%, according to The Washington Post.
Arizona — Unlikely
Arizonans will be voting on Proposition 205 on Election Day. While medical marijuana is already legal in Arizona, support for Prop 205 is split.
If the initiative passes, Arizonans would be free to consume marijuana and grow up to six plants in their homes. The state would create a department to regulate the cultivation, manufacturing, and retail sale of marijuana in the state.
The opposition side slightly outspent the pro-legalization side, $5.6 to $5.2 million, according to Ballotpedia.
Support for Prop 25 is hovering around 46%, according to the most recent polls. It’s looking unlikely to pass, but there could always be surprises.
Medical marijuana
Florida: 71% of Floridians support Amendment 2, which guarantees Floridians the right to use marijuana to treat ailments.
Arkansas: 50% of voters support Issue 6.
Montana: 44% of voters support I – 182, while 51% are against. The data isn’t robust however, as only two polls have been conducted.
North Dakota: No current polling available.
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